1- Home prices are at their lowest valuation in more than a generation. With home prices down by nearly one-third from their high, housing affordability as calculated by the National Association of Realtors has moved to the highest levels since the recordkeeping started in 1971. Also, with rents on the rise again as vacancy rates fall, the required annual home price appreciation needed to “break even” on a comparative analysis of buying versus renting costs has also fallen to levels not seen since the 1970s.
2- The large (but declining) number of distressed sellers provides buyers with negotiating power. On the supply side, extremely low housing starts will limit the number of new homes hitting the market. The dearth of construction and tightened credit standards force people into rentals –boosting rents and changing the buy-versus-rent calculus back in favor of homebuyers and landlords/investors looking to cash in on the rental boom.
3- Mortgage rates won’t go any lower. For the past couple of years, interest rates have hovered at levels last seen when the veterans came home from the Korean War. According to HSH.com, which tracks mortgage rates, at the beginning of August the national average 30-year fixed rate was 4.5%. FHA loans, which require only a 3.5% down payment, had a 4.3% rate. Adjustable-rate mortgages are even cheaper, and even rates for jumbo mortgages have hit lows not seen since the 1980s.
Freddie Mac forecasts a 30-year fixed rate of 5% by year-end and 6% by early 2013. Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating won’t have an immediate effect on rates because of the weak economy (see Ripple Effects of the U.S. Debt Downgrade). But credit is tighter, and you’ll need a credit score of 740 or more and a down payment of at least 25% to nab the lowest rates. If you fall short of that, you’ll pay interest-rate risk premiums if the bank plans to sell your loan to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. For example, lenders must charge an extra 0.25 point if a borrower has a 740 credit score but puts down less than 25% (but at least 20%).